Silence Gives Consent

“Grey waits until July 29 to warn the Germans Britain will not remain neutral. That’s a day too late, Austria having declared war on Serbia on July 28.”—By Sanford Rose

Dolors & Sense

By Sanford Rose

KISSIMMEE Florida—(Weekly Hubris)—04/21/2014—

Silence gives consent. It is a maxim of the common law that he who is silent assents to what is happening.

Last year, I talked about one famous silence. The Serbian prime minister in 1914 knew that some of his countrymen were planning to assassinate the heir to the Austrian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, in June, but failed to warn Austria in anything like a clear and convincing manner.

Now fast forward to late July. The archduke is dead. The Austrians have gotten the  German kaiser’s permission to discipline Serbia. They have sent Serbia an ultimatum that no sovereign country would be likely to accept.

Serbia has received Russia’s commitment of  military support. France has renewed its pact to aid Russia.

Europe is on the brink.

All eyes turn to Britain.

Although it should be clear to Germany that Britain will join France and Russia against it, in point of fact, it is not.

It is not clear because Kaiser Bill doesn’t wish to face facts.

He both hates and admires the British. But, most of all, he fears them.

He wants desperately to believe they will not fight him.

He grasps at straws.

Sir Edward Grey, the British foreign secretary, provides them.

He intimates that if the conflict is simply between Austria and Serbia, Britain might stand aside.

That is nonsense. The conflict is not containable. It is between Austria and Russia and thus between Russia’s ally, France, and Austria’s ally, Germany.

Grey has committed Britain to France’s support, but he won’t acknowledge this because he’s done so without the backing of his government.

Grey continues to temporize while the Russians start mobilizing on July 26, allegedly against only Austria but in practice against both Germany and Austria.

Grey waits until July 29 to warn Germany that Britain will not remain neutral.

That’s a day too late, Austria having declared war on Serbia on July 28.

Still, Kaiser Bill, no lover of peace but one whose bellicosity varies inversely with the imminence of danger, tries to stay Austria’s hand on July 29, only to abandon this belated effort the next day because he mistakenly believes he’s been deceived by the Russian Tsar.

Some idea of the potential power of a timely British warning can be gleaned from an incident that took place two days later, on August 1.

Grey is now out of his head with worry over the crisis. He tells the German ambassador that Britain will remain neutral if Germany agrees not to attack France. What’s more, he offers to guarantee French neutrality.

The suggestion is fantastic: Grey can’t promise French neutrality. The French are bound by treaty to go to war in support of Russia, and Germany is poised to declare war on Russia in response to the premature mobilization that began on July 26 but kicked into high gear on July 29, following the Austrian declaration of war on Serbia.

Hare-brained though it may be, Grey’s August 1 proposal is greeted with jubilation in Berlin.

The kaiser orders champagne. He tells his chief-of-staff to stop the scheduled invasion of Belgium and France in the west and turn the troop trains around to attack Russia in the east. His relief at not having to face the British is palpable.

Then word comes from his ambassador in London: it’s all a mistake. He’s misunderstood Grey.

Actually, it is not a mistake. Grey has indeed made the proposal, which he hastens to withdraw after being informed of its absurdity by subordinates.

Yet, the reaction of the Germans should leave us in no doubt as to Grey’s power.

Had he made it abundantly clear, as late as July 27, that Britain would not remain neutral in the forthcoming conflict, there would in fact have been no conflict.

Germany would have immediately withdrawn its unconditional support for Austria’s harsh Serbian policy before Vienna had a chance to blunder into a declaration of war.

Without Germany’s support, Austria would have been forced to negotiate.

Grey’s silence of late July is thunderous: it gives consent to those whose lack of realism encourages one of the most dangerous military adventures in history.